Showers and Thunderstorms are expected to begin after midnight Thursday morning and continue throughout the day Thursday ending late evening. The storms will be coming in waves which means there could be periods of dry time which is critical to how much fuel will be available for severe weather.
Currently the Storm Prediction Center has much of Southern Indiana in a Slight Risk for severe weather while a small section in Southeastern parts of Southern Indiana are in a Enhanced Risk which is were the Storm Prediction Center believes is the area at greatest risk for severe weather.
The first couple of waves during the predawn hours of Thursday are looking to be were the lowest threat of severe weather will be overall for Thursday with a more organized line possibly coming together just after lunch time Thursday. Whether this line will materialize or not will depend on if the atmosphere can become destabilized which will require a period of dry weather, sunlight and temperatures holding above 60 degrees. If this can be achieved then the threat for severe weather would be a higher chance. If we can hold onto the clouds and avoid sunlight the chance for severe weather will be less as the atmosphere will be stabilized which would mean very little energy to work off of.
So here's the breakdown of the timeline and threats:
Timing
12am - Storms begin to flare up in Southwestern Indiana and moving Northeast.
3am - 4am CST./5am - 6am EST. - Storms enter Central and parts of Southeastern Indiana
5am CST./6am EST. - Wave #1 is now widespread throughout Southern Indiana - small chance of severe weather during this wave.
8am CST./9am EST. - Wave #2 - another round of scattered showers throughout all of Southern Indiana. - small chance of severe weather during this wave.
1pm CST./2pm EST. - Wave #3 - this wave looks a little more organized and is where are greatest potential of severe weather is.
Threats
- Damaging Winds (Primary Threat)
-A Few Spin Up Tornadoes
-Hail
Stay weather aware and with these storms starting during the overnight it's important to have a way to get severe weather alerts that will wake you up should severe weather happen while you're sleeping!
-Stay Safe!